Abstract

Observable institutional decisions, staffing investment, resource allocation, and the demographic alignment between faculty and student populations are measurable predictors of whether students return for a second year. This study uses the Student Success Capacity Index (SSCI), a formative composite built from publicly available Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) records, to examine whether structural institutional conditions predict first-year to second-year retention across 1,284 public and private non-profit four-year institutions over a five-year panel (2020–2024). Operating from a QuantCrit framework that repositions institutions as the primary unit of quantitative accountability, the study applies OLS regression with robust and clustered standard errors. SSCI is associated with retention at β = 0.215 (p < .001, full sample), β = 0.093 (p < .001, selectivity-controlled), and β = 0.064 (p < .001, five-year panel, N = 4,266). A robustness model removing the Outcomes dimension retains roughly 70% of the panel effect (p < .001), addressing concerns about circularity between predictor and outcome. These findings suggest structural institutional capacity deserves standing as an accountability metric.